Early insights from our 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Study show consumers are taking control of how, when, and why they buy. Businesses need to plan for a different kind of season.
This holiday season is taking shape in the context of an uncertain and uneven economy. 2025 has brought continued volatility, from shifting consumer demand to the impact of tariffs and pricing pressure across categories. Shoppers are responding with more deliberate decisions about where and when they spend. There is no single narrative driving the consumer behavior. Instead, consumers are making value-based decisions shaped by timing, personal priorities, and trust.
Retailers are preparing for a season that will not follow the usual patterns. Promotional calendars are in motion, but many business leaders are approaching the next few months with more realism than reflex. The days of expecting one major shopping weekend to shape the entire quarter are behind us. Consumers are adapting.
They are not opting out entirely, but they are setting their own pace and expectations. That means the most valuable insight right now is not how much people plan to spend, but how they plan to shop.
Our 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Study, based on a survey of 1,500 everyday consumers, offers a clear signal. The mindset heading into the season is more intentional and less dependent on retail-driven moments.
Average household spend for the 2025 holiday season is projected to reach $1,223, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to last year. This growth is being driven primarily by higher-income households, particularly those earning above $100,000 annually. Among middle- and lower-income consumers, spending remains more cautious and selective. This pattern aligns with broader seasonal spending trends observed throughout the second half of the year, where purchasing behavior has been shaped more by individual circumstances than by widespread momentum.
This change in spending patterns suggests retailers should plan more carefully. While overall spend is rising, it is doing so unevenly. Retailers will need to consider how to serve both higher-income shoppers who are ready to spend more and value-focused customers who are making more selective choices.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain prominent shopping events, with 64% of consumers planning to shop during Black Friday and 52% during Cyber Monday. However, participation in promotional main events is losing traction and compared to previous years. Other dates, such as Super Saturday, are gaining traction. Shoppers are also spreading out their purchases across the season, choosing to buy at various points rather than concentrating spending around one or two specific events.
In addition to spreading out their purchases, many shoppers are also delaying when they begin. 60% say they will not start holiday shopping until October or later. Some will begin earlier if they are working within a set budget or keeping an eye on specific price points. Others prefer to wait; confident they can find what they need closer to key dates or even after them.
For some, there may be no holiday shopping at all. 19% of consumers say they do not plan to participate in the season this year. Their reasons vary, but many cite the emotional and financial cost of a season that has become more commercial than joyful.
This is just the beginning of what we are learning from this year’s Holiday Shopping Study. In the coming weeks, we will share more insights on how consumers are using tools like AI and social media influencers to guide their decisions across brands and channels.
Stay tuned for actionable insights on what these mean for the holiday shopping season.
If you are looking for clear, strategic ways to meet consumer expectations this season, we are here to help. Our team works with leading consumer businesses and retailers to turn consumer insight into action, from promotional planning to channel strategy. Reach out to start a conversation about how we can support your goals this holiday season and beyond.