The wild west of sales forecasting in pharmaceuticals: When expectation meets reality


Are you on a quest for growth in the pharmaceutical industry?  Discover how accurate due diligence assessments and forecasting are critical to drive business growth.

Facing the challenges: Pipelines of many pharma companies are looking increasingly thin and need to be replenished in the coming years. Additionally, pharma companies also face significant challenges as patent exclusivity for around 200 drugs are set to expire by 2030. As a result, companies are shifting their focus toward inorganic growth strategies, like licensing agreements, to sustain growth amidst diminishing R&D development. However, substantial deviations in sales forecasts undermine their utility as a tool for decision-making.

Our analysis of 50 US prescription drugs reveals significant disparities between forecasted and actual sales figures during the initial five years post-approval. Only 12 percent drugs demonstrated sales forecast accuracy of 25 percent while a substantial 32 percent were overestimated by more than double actual sales figures. In contrast, 28 percent fell short by more than two times compared to their actual sales performance.

The success of inorganic growth strategies depends on effective due diligence assessments. Forecasts need to reflect current and future prescribing behavior, as well as the increasingly complex payer landscape. In this report, we shed light on how accuracy in due diligence assessments is key to future growth in pharma.

Download our whitepaper to unlock the key insights for mastering sales forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry! 

Thanks to in-depth contributions by Santiago Wochner


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