Holiday budgets are being reset, not abandoned
Americans plan to spend 5.5% less this holiday season, marking a decline to 2024 levels. But the pullback isn't uniform. Lower- and middle-income households are showing greater signs of pressure, while higher-income households remain a stronger spending anchor.
Despite tighter budgets, consumers aren't walking away from the holidays. Instead, they're making greater trade-offs such as drawing on savings, seeking out deals and turning to AI to manage costs.
Value still matters… but shoppers are questioning the deal
Only 22% fully trust advertised savings.
Inflation is changing how and when consumers shop. Many are shopping early, budgeting and weighing the want for more gifts against the need for everyday essentials.
Only a pretty insignificant percentage of consumers believe advertised discounts fully reflect true savings, signaling that shoppers are scrutinizing promotions more carefully and putting greater pressure on retailers to demonstrate credible value.
If consumers don’t fully trust the discount, how do brands win on value?
Consumers are protecting the holiday experience
Even as shoppers cut costs, they aren't willing to sacrifice everything that makes the holidays feel like the holidays.
- 62% are shopping earlier to spread out costs
- 50%+ are cutting non-essential purchases or choosing lower-priced brands
- 56% remain willing to spend extra to maintain holiday traditions
The result is a more selective consumer, one who is looking for savings while protecting the purchases and experiences that matter most.
AI and social platforms are gaining influence across the shopping journey
- 50% consumers is turning to AI for holiday shopping assistance
- Only 16% would let AI complete the shopping transaction
- Among TikTok Shop users, nearly 50% have shopped Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales on the platform
- 60% of TikTok Shop users are likely to shop LIVE this holiday season
AI continues to become a more established part of holiday shopping, helping consumers navigate an increasingly value-conscious purchase journey. Shoppers are using it primarily as a decision-support tool, while maintaining control over the final purchase.
At the same time, social commerce is moving discovery and transaction closer together, with TikTok Shop gaining traction as a destination for deal-seeking and direct purchasing during key holiday shopping moments.
