Global Consultancy Simon-Kucher Launches 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report
Boston, MA – September 27, 2025 – Holiday shoppers are expected to spend at least 6 percent more, or up to $1,077 per household, compared to last year, according to Simon-Kucher’s highly anticipated 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report, which provides data-driven insights and explores consumer retail macroeconomic trends. Consumers report stricter budgets and a shift toward quality and value over price in most categories.
“This is our most comprehensive study to date,” said Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher. “With market fluctuations and tariff disruptions, it was an opportunity to dig deep into generational behaviors and purchasing drivers. Consumers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all discount strategy this holiday season. By striking a balance between promotions and differentiating discounts, retailers can meet consumer expectations and maintain profitability.”
2025 Key Trends
Spending
Most consumers expect discounts of up to 40 percent. Discounts up to 25 percent are still common across different categories.
Spending is category specific. More than 50 percent of consumers spend over $100 in categories like high-value household appliances, home improvement, and electronics.
“Holiday sales will grow in 2025 with a successful measure of meaningful discounts. Consumers are acting decisively, securing good deals now that may not last,” said Jain.
Purchasing Behavior
Sixty-six percent of consumers who start holiday shopping early favor Black Friday and other sales events, starting from the 4th of July to Super Saturday. Social media is a source of inspiration and influencer ideas for 64 percent of shoppers.
When it comes to returns, 3 out of 4 consumers return 10 percent or less of their purchases.
“Today’s holiday shopper plans early, looks to social media for inspiration, and expects smooth experiences that minimize returns,” said Max Walter, Director, Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher.
AI Going Mainstream
Consumers are embracing AI with some limitations. 54 percent of consumers use AI for holiday shopping support, while 23 percent use it to track deals, and 27 percent for price comparisons.
Older generations prefer to brainstorm their own gift ideas and choose not to use AI.
“AI is increasingly leveraged to support holiday gift purchasing despite the generational issues of adoption and trust,” said Walter.
Disruptions from Tariffs
Forty-four percent of consumers expect tariffs to have at least a moderate impact on holiday shopping, while 19 percent are opting out due to budget constraints and commercialization.
Shoppers use an average of 2.4 payment methods, with 45 percent opting for debit cards as their preferred payment method.
Adds Walter, “Tariffs add a financial hardship on both essential and discretionary goods, so businesses that offer consumers thoughtful, value-driven initiatives will thrive better.”
What Has Changed Since 2019
Similar to the past two years, the majority of consumers expect discount sales of up to 25 percent and think Black Friday is the best sales event.
Amazon continues to dominate, while social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok are gaining traction for browsing.
“Consumers value transparency, convenience, and shopping experiences that emphasize loyalty and quality over discounts,” shares Jain.
Simon-Kucher’s Holiday Shopping Report has become a trusted resource for retailers and consumer brands thanks to its many past predictions that have closely mirrored actual outcomes. For consumer goods and retail clients, Simon-Kucher’s pricing, sales, and marketing projects deliver significant, rapid, and sustainable profit and growth improvements.
Complete study findings are available upon request.
About the Study: Conducted between July 25-31, 2025, Simon-Kucher conducted an anonymous survey of 1,513 US consumers to determine the most accurate holiday spending predictions. We analyzed holiday spend per household with respect to the actual US population distribution by household income level (as published by the US Census: Household Income: HINC-06 (census.gov)
To most accurately represent the average US consumer, for the spending responses we examined both the absolute dollar amount stated as well as the percent change compared to the previous year. We then excluded 5 percent on each end to focus on the median 90 percent.
About Simon-Kucher
Simon-Kucher is a global consultancy with more than 2,000 employees in 31 countries. Our sole focus is on unlocking better growth that drives measurable revenue and profit for our clients. We achieve this by optimizing every lever of their commercial strategy - product, price, innovation, marketing, and sales - based on deep insights into what customers want and value. With 40 years of experience in monetization topics of all kinds, we are regarded as the world’s leading pricing and growth specialist.